Contours of Compliance: Unravelling Factors Shaping Public Health Policy Preferences in the COVID-19 Era

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the critical role of public attitudes in shaping policy responses to crises. Political trust, conspiracy beliefs, support for democracy, and acceptance of authoritarian rule are key factors influencing public preferences for policy trade-offs, such as prioritising public health versus economic activity, public monitoring versus privacy, and compliance with government regulations versus individual autonomy. This study aims to examine how these factors shape Europeans’ policy priorities during the pandemic and how variations in political trust at the national level influence these preferences. Using data from the European Social Survey Round 10 (2020–2022), which includes responses from 29 countries, multilevel regression analysis is employed to explore individual and country-level dynamics. The results indicate that higher political trust is associated with greater compliance with government measures, while conspiracy beliefs and authoritarian inclinations correlate with resistance to restrictions. Support for democracy shows limited influence on policy preferences. The findings underscore the importance of political trust in fostering public cooperation during crises and highlight the challenges posed by conspiracy beliefs and authoritarian support. The study contributes to understanding the interplay of trust, governance, and public attitudes, offering insights for designing efficient and publicly acceptable crisis policies.