Spatial Distribution and Dynamics of Events Registered by Lithuanian Police in 2015–2019

Abstract

The article presents the preliminary results of spatio-temporal analysis of the events registered by Lithuanian police in 2015–2019. Such analyses contribute to understanding of crime as a socially and spatially bound phenomenon. Distribution of crime is complex, inhomogeneous and depends on various characteristics of locations. Of all 3.48 million of events registered in the five-year period, five groups were selected for analysis: crime of violence, thefts, destruction of or damage to property, drug-related crime and public nuisance, presuming that these five groups best represent the crime situation in the country. The total amount of analysed records was 1.69 million. Point events have been aggregated into hexagonal cells 25 square kilometer each, covering the entire territory of the country. The crime rate was calculated based on the population data for each cell. Appropriate methods for the temporal and probability density analysis of crime were selected and applied to the cells, yielding relative crime probability density maps for all events and, separately, for open space events. The density information was complemented by the cells with a stable significant growth of the crime rate for five years. Thus the most problematic areas are clearly seen and can be further analysed in detail. The multi-scale lattice maps for each of the five groups of crime have been designed and made publicly available at the Lithuanian spatial information portal geoportal.lt where they can be laid over various available geospatial data and used for spatial insights.